With help from Plok, I went back through the MisplacedItems data, reviewing its data storage and previous filter options. We were looking at how the site calculated its 15-minute windows and daily data because we had noticed differences between the maximums on my site and the maximums Plok had kept.
MisplacedItems took snapshots every five minutes. Those snapshots were averaged and displayed in 15-minute windows. The backend also kept the maximum for each window, so a daily maximum count absolutely could differ from the maximum displayed in a 15-minute window.
On aggrgtr, I use and will continue to use the historical MisplacedItems data in 15-minute windows. The exception is Peaks & Troughs on the Trends page, where I now use the daily maximum and minimum. This matches how people who have analyzed the maximum data over the years have done so.
I also reviewed the MisplacedItems data against other sites that preserved it. The data correlated at approximately 0.99. That is almost an exact match.
The table below summarizes all of the changes I made to the site.
| Change | Result |
|---|---|
| Early population history | Added 11,800 Wayback datapoints, increasing the series from 1,424 to 13,227 |
| Historical peaks and troughs | Now use the MisplacedItems daily maximum and minimum |
| Peaks & Troughs controls | Added date filtering and quick filters |
| All Time eras | Labeled Classic, RS2, RS3, and OSRS as distinct series |
| Chart readability | Improved X/Y label collision handling across different screen sizes |
With the additional Wayback player counts, the Population page is likely the most comprehensive third-party view of RuneScape player count history ever assembled. Pretty cool!
120 Construction
The Maxed count on RS3 fell by approximately 2,300 accounts when 120 Construction launched.
Sunlight Sands exceeded my prediction by an additional 3% so far
In May, I wrote that if the Beach returned alongside 120 Construction, I expected a player count lift of 5% or less.
Sunlight Sands launched on July 6, followed by 120 Construction on July 13. Using the same baseline analysis as before, the first seven complete days of Sunlight Sands averaged 17,009 RS3 players. The 14 days immediately before the event averaged 15,731.
That was an 8.1% lift before 120 Construction launched.
| Period | Dates | Days | Average | Avg daily peak | Lift |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-event baseline | Jun 22-Jul 5 | 14 | 15,731 | 20,684 | Baseline |
| Sunlight Sands | Jul 6-12 | 7 | 17,009 | 22,194 | +8.1% |
Average daily peaks also increased by about 7%, from 20,684 to 22,194. This larger percentage lift is likely related to there being fewer average players online than during previous Beach events.
RS3 turnaround?
As I mentioned previously, RS3 found its bottom. The one-month regression on the Trends page is currently sitting at about 50 to 60 players per day, or roughly 1,500 to 1,800 players over 30 days, after controlling for seasonal and weekly cycles.
The completed weekly hiscores count increased from 111,323 for the week beginning June 24 to 117,088 for the week beginning July 1 and 124,813 for the week beginning July 8. We can also see from the hiscores that the number of members has increased.
RS3 is still below its previous yearly highs, but all of these measures point toward an uptick in player counts.
Before I say RS3 has turned around, I would like to see it averaging above 20K players per day. If there is significant growth in the game, I think we will be seeing 25K to 30K players per day. These would be better signs that the game has recovered from earlier trauma.
Leagues II
Leagues II: Equilibrium launches on August 10. I expect a very large turnout of "players". The counts will likely be inflated by people playing alts and main accounts at the same time, but we will no doubt see tremendous spikes in player counts as we did last year.
If RS3 in September and October is still consistently averaging between 25K and 30K players per day, as mentioned above, that is a good sign the game has turned around.
Right now, we are seeing the beginning of what might be a significant turnaround trend, but it is still too early to say. I am excited to see the player counts going back up.