The doldrums are a place on Earth near the equator, where the winds go quiet and ships sailing could be stuck for months awaiting a breeze to push them forward to their destination.
RuneScape is getting close to entering its summer doldrums.
The breeze could start blowing at any time. We could see lifts. We could see stagnation.
However, what we are most likely not going to see are big jumps in player counts now that we are heading into the summer, based on historical trends. The May-through-August stretch is historically flat, with one caveat being 2023, when Necromancy launched that August.
| Year | May | June | July | August | Directionality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21,498 | 24,949 | 25,632 | 31,583 | August jump |
| 2024 | 18,463 | 18,086 | 18,422 | 21,275 | August jump |
| 2025 | 19,898 | 18,558 | 19,357 | 19,439 | Mostly flat |
| 2026 | 17,978* | - | - | - | Current May |
So, yes, my prediction is that even with 120 Construction on the way, and even with a possible Beach event this year, we might see some variance in counts, but we are not going to see big increases.
If Jagex does release a Beach event this year, the last three years are the apt comparisons. Jagex ran The Beach event in 2023, The Beach in 2024, and The Beach in 2025.
The Beach event did move the number a little. Compared with the 14 days before the event, the Beach window was up about 12% in 2023 and about 5% in both 2024 and 2025. However, 2026 is acting more like a depressed version of 2024 and 2025.
| Year | Dates | Pre 14d | Beach | Lift | Post 14d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | May 30-Jun 26 | 22,322 | 24,923 | +11.7% | 25,282 |
| 2024 | Jun 24-Jul 22 | 17,815 | 18,707 | +5.0% | 18,996 |
| 2025 | Jun 30-Jul 28 | 18,421 | 19,497 | +5.8% | 18,700 |
So my final prediction is that if Beach does return this year, and if 120 Construction releases at around the same time, I would expect a lift to be 5% or less.
So we ourselves are now awaiting to see if any wind will catch in the sails.