For each hour, I averaged the official RuneScape 3 count and averaged the Steam RuneScape 3 count. Then I compared those paired hours. So when I say Steam x 8.3, I mean: take the RuneScape 3 Steam hourly average and multiply it by about 8.3, and that gives you a rough estimate of the official RuneScape 3 hourly average. It is not perfect, but it is surprisingly close.
For example, if Steam says there are 2,411 RS3 players online, the simple multiplier estimate is about 20,000 official RS3 players. That is very close to the live player count I checked while writing this, which was about 19,100. It was only about 1,000 off from a one-time pull, not even an hourly average.
Steam as an RS3 predictor
Measure
Result
Meaning
Unit of analysis
3,039 paired hours
Each row is one Central-time hour with both official RS3 and Steam RS3 data.
Date window
Jan 11-May 17, 2026
Hours where both counts were available.
Pearson correlation
0.9710
Steam and official RS3 move together very strongly.
R-squared
0.9429
Steam hourly counts explain about 94.3% of official hourly RS3 movement.
Avg Steam share
12.07%
Steam is usually about 12% of official RS3 population.
Mean multiplier
8.325x
Official RS3 is roughly Steam RS3 x 8.3.
Average estimate error
5.28%
Steam x 8.325 misses official RS3 by about 5.3% on average.
Summary stats
Variable
N
Mean
SD
Min
Median
Max
Official RS3 hourly avg
3,039
19,427.4
5,182.5
6,212.5
19,545.5
37,146.4
Steam RS3 hourly avg
3,039
2,334.0
613.6
809.0
2,304.5
4,418.0
Correlation matrix
Official RS3
Steam RS3
Official RS3
1.0000
0.9710
Steam RS3
0.9710
1.0000
Simple estimate model
Model
Formula
Avg
Med
P90
Constant multiplier
Steam x 8.325
5.28%
4.67%
10.00%
Linear regression
284.2 + Steam x 8.202
5.32%
4.69%
10.20%
Monthly stability
Month
Hours
Steam share
Multiplier
r
R2
Jan 2026
504
12.08%
8.325x
0.9644
0.9301
Feb 2026
672
12.58%
7.977x
0.9793
0.9590
Mar 2026
743
11.96%
8.393x
0.9754
0.9513
Apr 2026
719
11.69%
8.584x
0.9755
0.9516
May 2026
401
12.06%
8.313x
0.9777
0.9559
The relationship is strong enough that Steam can be used for directionality. If Steam spikes, official RS3 almost certainly spikes too. If Steam dips, official RS3 usually dips with it.
It is a slice of the player base, and it will not always be exactly Steam x 8.3, especially depending on the time of day that you look at it.